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The inflation rate for the month of November could settle at 3.9 percent or within the two-four percent government target, said Security Bank Corp. (SBC).

The SBC projection is higher than Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) forecast of 3.7 percent for November. The Philippine Statistics Authority ƒĢķķ ũāķāÖŭā ŶĞā ķÖŶāŭŶ ĢłƪÖŶĢŋł rate on Dec. 7.

“(The) November 2021 ĞāÖùķĢłā ĢłƪÖŶĢŋł ũÖŶā Ģŭ āŭŶĢmated to have slowed to +3.9 percent (3.9 percent) yearon-year from October’s 4.6 percent,” said SBC economist Robert Dan Roces in a commentary on Friday, Dec. 3.

“Our forecast range is 3.7 percent to 4.1 percent and the estimated month-on-month change is +0.4 percent,” said Roces.

Roces added that while the ƘāÖũ̟ŋł̟ƘāÖũ ũÖŶā ƒÖŭ ̦ŋƦŭāŶ ðƘ ĕÖƑŋũÖðķā ðÖŭā āƦāóŶŭ̧ ŶĞā 0.4 percent month-on-month increase was due to a “heavilyweighed

food basket” where they project a 10 basis points (bps) increase as the “Ber” holiday season has already started.

Roces noted that utilities may have increased by 30 bps because of higher residential electricity rates “due to issues with Malampaya plus higher demand” while restaurants and services baskets are estimated to have gone up by 150 bps with “demand-pull on the back of looser curbs.”

“For the months ahead, primary upside risks include global crude and other commodity price movements, while the downside is posed by the omicron variant. Food remains elevated and susceptible to any supply snags,” said Roces.

The consumer price index breached four percent in January this year and has stayed above the two-four target for the last 10 months.

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said last Nov. 29 that the pŋƑāĿðāũ ĢłƪÖŶĢŋł óŋŽķù ĞĢŶ Ö low of 3.3 percent or a high of 4.1 ťāũóāłŶ̇ ƒĢŶĞ Ö ťŋĢłŶ ĢłƪÖŶĢŋł forecast of 3.7 percent.